2026 Midterm Election - Updating The Senate Map

Since our last Senate election update in February, there have been several new variables added to the political landscape. 

• The ongoing war in Iran has increased gas prices by over 50% nationwide, driving the highest inflation in years.  

• The blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has also increased fertilizer prices which is having a negative impact on American farmers in Midwestern states. 

• On the left, Senate Democratic Leadership has emerged as a political liability for Democrat candidates in toss-up states. 

• Primary challengers are dropping out or rising in the polls, bringing races into focus.

• Job growth and stock markets have outpaced expectations as President Trump tries to position the economy as a net positive for Republicans in the midterms. 

• Overall, Democrats have expanded the map of states that Republicans must defend. There are now ten states that will determine the Senate majority. 

• States like Alaska, Iowa, and Nebraska are now in play for Democrats.

With these changes in mind, here is a state-by-state look at the Senate election landscape heading into a pivotal summer. As a reminder, there are ten states with Senate races that are considered competitive. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage and Vice President Vance would be the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 scenario. Democrats would have to flip four states to take the Senate.

Bottom line, with Vice President JD Vance holding the tie-breaking vote, it is a heavy lift for Democrats to take the Senate but it is not impossible if the climate continues to detoriorate for the GOP.

Consensus Senate Ratings as of May 14, 2026

Alaska - Senator Dan Sullivan (R) Running for Reelection

• The entrance of Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, who won a statewide House seat in recent years, means that the GOP will have to expend resources defending the seat. 

• Alaska uses ranked choice voting but the contest is expected to remain a binary choice between Sullivan and Peltola.

• The primary will be held August 18, 2026, but the two candidates are all but set. 

Previously considered a relatively safe Republican state, the entrance of Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, has raised the prospect of a potential Democratic pick-up. A former member of Congress, Peltola won statewide just a few years ago in 2022. As a reminder, Alaska only has one Congressional district, so challenging an incumbent senator from the House, which would normally be an uphill battle, is not as difficult.

Although she lost reelection with Trump on the ballot, Trump won’t be at the top of the ballot this year. Alaska is a key GOP firewall state and Sullivan is a good candidate, but the state is now on the board and will bear watching.

Polling Snapshot

A March 2026 poll from Alaska Survey Research has Peltola up six points over Sullivan. Peltola 46% - Sullivan 41% - Someone else 13%.

Georgia – Senator Jon Ossoff (D) Running for Reelection

• Incumbent Senator Ossoff is winning the fundraising battle.

• Republicans were unable to recruit top prospective candidate former Governor Brian Kemp.

• GOP candidates still have to make it through a primary.

• The primary will be held May 19, 2026.

Republicans missed their opportunity to recruit former Governor Brian Kemp in Georgia who would seemingly be their best opponent against Ossoff. Democrats are now favored to retain the seat, but given the fact that President Trump won Georgia, Republicans are certainly still in the fight. Georgia remains one of the most hotly contested Senate races this cycle and could see over $100 million spent by November.  

Polling Snapshot

The RealClearPolitics average of polls from the last few months has Representative Mike Collins (R-GA) leading in the Republican primary by as much as 14 points. March polling found that Senator Ossoff has an edge above each of his Republican challengers. Ossoff 47% - Carter 44%. Ossoff 48% - Collins 43%. Ossoff 49% - Dooley 41%.

Iowa – Open Seat

• Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA) is not seeking another term.

• Representative Ashley Hinson (R-IA) is the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination. 

• There has been a competitive and antagonistic Democratic primary between Josh Turek and Zach Wahls.

• The primary is June 2, 2026.

Democrats are beginning to feel more optimistic about their chances to pick up a rare win in Iowa. Running off the coattails of a strong gubernatorial candidate, Democrats are feeling confident and competitive meaning there will be financial resources dedicated to the race. The biggest question is whether a tough Democratic primary will hurt primary candidates Turek or the more liberal Wahls.

Republicans think Hinson is regarded as a good candidate, but there is a fear of GOP fatigue. Farmers are generally unhappy with the Trump administration's trade agenda and the rising costs of fertilizers and diminished agriculture exports. Additionally, Democrats have the help of a strong statewide candidate for governor at the top of the ballot, which could push additional turnout for the Senate race.



Polling Snapshot

In late April polling, both Democratic candidates held slim leads over Hinson, all within the margin for error. Wahls 46% - Hinson 44%. Turek 46% - Hinson 44%. 

Maine – Senator Susan Collins (R) Running for Reelection

• Senator Collins is running for reelection. 

• Maine Governor Janet Mills suspended her campaign for the Senate in May.

• Well-funded populist Graham Platner is the presumptive Democrat candidate.  

• Kamala Harris beat Trump by over seven points in the traditionally blue state. 

• The primary is June 9, 2026. 

Incumbent Senator Collins always has a difficult race, but has always found a way to win. As always, Collins knows the value of demonstrating her independence in a left-leaning state and is running a campaign that is relatively disconnected from President Trump and the GOP machine. The exit of Mills from the race is concerning for moderate Democrats because Platner has a number of well-documented skeletons. However, Democrats are always spoiling for a chance to win in this liberal state and Platner has deep pockets to keep this race close until November. 

Polling Snapshot

Robust statewide polling has not been made public since Mills left the race. One online survey from Echelon Insights, however, showed Platner in the early lead. Platner 51% - Collins 45%. 

Michigan – Open Seat

• Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) is not seeking reelection after two terms.

• The three-way Democratic primary is competitive and contentious.

• Establishment candidate Representative Haley Stevens is running against former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed and state Senator Mallory McMorrow.

• Former Representative Mike Rogers is the prohibitive Republican primary favorite. 

• Republicans are hoping El-Sayed, the most progressive candidate, wins the primary.

• The primary is August 4, 2026.

Democrats have a competitive three-way primary where a split between traditional Democrats and progressive liberals has emerged. El-Sayed recently took a lead in Democratic primary polls which is slightly worrying to moderate Democrats concerned about winning the west side of the states as well as Detroit. It is likely the most competitive Democratic Senate primary in the country which is a small reason for Republican optimism. Democrats should have the upper hand in a state Republicans have only won in the last ten years when Donald Trump was on the ticket. 

Polling Snapshot

A divided Democratic primary has given a unified Republican candidate an early boost. The Detroit News released a poll just this week giving Rogers slight edges over all the Democratic candidates. Rogers 43.8% - Stevens 41.5%. Rogers 42.8% - McMorrow 40.7%. Rogers 44.7% - El-Sayad 39.8%. 

Minnesota – Open Seat

• Senator Tina Smith (D) is not seeking another term.

• The Democratic primary between Representative Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is competitive. 

• Republican Michele Tafoya is the frontrunner for the nomination. 

• The primary is August 11, 2026.

The odds of Republicans flipping deeply blue and politically motivated Minnesota are admittedly slim. Republicans gained renewed hope earlier this year with the entrance of high-profile candidate Michele Tafoya into the race. Tafoya is a former reporter for the National Football League and has a high media profile. Democrats still hold a major advantage in a state where immigration is a major issue and Kamala Harris won by five points. 

Nebraska - Senator Pete Ricketts (R) Running for Reelection 

• Senator Ricketts is running for reelection and can self-fund his campaign. 

• Democrats have a unique strategy to drop out of the general election.

• The plan is to clear a path for an independent candidate 

Nebraska is unique because Senator Ricketts’ biggest threat won’t come from a Democratic candidate. In fact, the winner of Tuesday’s Democratic primary, Cindy Burbank, will promptly drop out of the race and endorse Independent candidate Dan Osborn. If he wins, Osborn would caucus with Democrats and push them one Senate seat closer to the majority. Nebraska is deeply red and a Democratic candidate would be almost guaranteed to lose. However, an “independant” who has already done well in a statewide election will now make it a true race. 

Polling Snapshot

While polling showed Ricketts with a wide margin over a Democratic candidate (+16), online polling from earlier this week had the race against Osborn much closer. Osborn 47% - Ricketts 42%.

New Hampshire - Open Seat

• Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is not seeking another term. 

• In the Democratic primary, Representative Chris Pappas is the frontrunner. 

• Former Senator John Sununu leads former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown in the Republican primary.

• The primary is September 8, 2026.

In February, President Trump endorsed Sununu despite his past criticism of the President. The Sununu family has long been active in New Hampshire politics, with both Sununu’s father John H. Sununu as well as his brother Chris Sununu having served as governor of the state. Sununu brings a significant cash and polling advantage over his primary rival, Scott Brown - a former Senator in Massachusetts before moving to New Hampshire. Republicans see New Hampshire as a pickup opportunity after a March Emerson College poll showed Sununu and Democrat Chris Pappas in a statistical tie. 

Polling Snapshot

In a general election matchup, Pappas leads Sununu by a single point Pappas 45% - Sununu 44%. Pappas leads Scott Brown by a wider margin. Pappas 48% - Brown 39%. 

North Carolina – Open Seat

• Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) is not seeking another term.

• Popular former Governor Roy Cooper secured the Democratic nomination in the March primary.

• Former Republican National Committee (RNC) Chair Michael Whatley secured the Republican nomination.

In one of the most-watched races this cycle, Cooper continues to outraise Whatley, entering the second quarter with $18.5 million cash on-hand versus Whatley’s $2.5 million. Just six months out from election day, North Carolina’s General Assembly has announced an investigation into the Cooper administration’s court-ordered settlement that led to the early release of 3,500 prisoners due to danger from COVID-19.

Polling Snapshot

An April Opinion Diagnostics poll shows Cooper leading Whatley, well in-line with previous general election polling of the state. Cooper 50.4% - Whatley 41.4%.

Ohio – Senator Jon Husted (R) Running to Complete the Term

• Vice President JD Vance resigned his Senate seat in 2025 to serve as President Trump’s Vice President.

• Former Ohio lieutenant governor Jon Husted (R) was appointed to fill Vance’s Senate seat. He has never been top of the ticket.

• In May, former Senator Sherrod Brown (D) won the Democratic nomination to run against Husted. In contrast to Husted, Brown has many times been at the top of the ticket.

• The special election will decide who will complete Vance’s term, who was elected to the Senate in 2022.

Brown served for three terms in the Senate before narrowly losing to now-Senator Bernie Moreno (R) in 2024. Democrats hope to flip this toss-up seat using Brown’s significant cash advantage and capitalizing on a cycle in which President Trump does not appear on the top of the ticket. As a well-known quantity in the state, Brown outperformed Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024 when he lost his Senate seat and gives Democrats a credible chance at winning Ohio. Additionally, Democrats are confident in their chances in the governor's race, again potentially helping turnout for the Senate race.



Polling Snapshot

A Bowling Green State University poll from April shows Husted with a lead over Brown, within the margin of error. Previous polling has shown a similar narrow lead for Husted. Husted 50% - Brown 47%.

Texas - Senator John Cornyn (R) Running for Reelection 

• Cornyn is running for reelection but faces a tough primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).

• In the March primary election, Cornyn received 41.9% versus 40.7% for Paxton.

• Because no candidate in the Republican primary received 50% of the vote, Cornyn and Paxton will go to a runoff election on May 26.

• Democratic state Representative James Talarico won the Democratic nomination for Senate over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. 

As we approach the May 26 runoff election between Cornyn and Paxton, the contentious and personal nature of the primary has raised concerns that divisions within the Republican Party could open the door for Talarico to flip this traditionally safe Republican seat. While Democrats have yet to realize their goal of flipping Texas, the 2018 Senate race between Republican Senator Ted Cruz and Democrat Beto O’Rourke was decided by a slim margin of only around 219,000 votes (or 2.6%). Republicans are likely to retain this Senate seat, but over the past two cycles, Democrats have forced the Republican party to invest significant resources into defending Texas: O’Rourke and Cruz raised over a combined $125 million in 2018, while Colin Allred and Cruz raised over a combined $200 million in 2024.  

President Trump thus far has not made an endorsement in the race.

Polling Snapshot

An April University of Houston survey shows Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn, 48% - 45%. Two other recent polls show Talarico leading both Republicans: a Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico leading Cornyn 44% - 41% and Paxton 46% - 41%, while a University of Texas poll shows Talarico leading Cornyn 40% - 33% and Paxton 42% - 34%.