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Recapping the most important policy news from the week of March 9 - 13, including updates on the Iran conflict, new tariff investigations, and the continued DHS shutdown.

Congressional Republicans are facing an uphill battle in the 2026 midterm elections. The president’s party has lost ground in the House in 90% of midterm elections since 1938. For Republican members of Congress running for reelection, the prospect of doing nothing in Washington for the next six months would give campaign fodder to their opponents. Vulnerable elected officials want more action in Congress, even if the chances are lower that the bill will be signed.

Recapping policy updates from D.C. for the week of March 2 - 6, 2026, including leadership changes at the Department of Homeland Security and the ROAD to Housing Act.

This week, the Senate is expected to vote on the Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream (ROAD) to Housing Act. That bill repurposes and redesigns a number of housing programs and has previously had strong support in the Senate. Yesterday evening, the Senate voted 84-6 to advance the legislation. The revised text of the legislation included language (Section 901) that will prohibit large “institutional investors” from purchasing certain single-family homes.

Recapping the policy happenings in Washington D.C.

President Trump’s record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union Address started with a celebration of America’s 250th anniversary of independence and a claim that “this is the golden age of America.” Throughout the speech, the President touted his wins from the first year of his administration, while delivering a harsh rebuke of the prior administration and Democrats in Congress.

President Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address on Tuesday. Having worked on State of the Union speeches for President Trump in the first administration, we’re predicting some of the big policies to watch during tomorrow’s address. Below are predictions on speech highlights, major policy goals, priorities for Congress, foreign policy, and the President’s political messaging heading into the midterm elections. Possible Legislative Priorities for Congress Odd

Key Takeaways  The Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariff authority could come any day.  The Court releases a tranche of rulings today at 10:00 AM and again next week.  There is no requirement that the IEEPA decision be released by any certain date.  USTR and the White House have been working on a plan to replace the bulk of IEEPA tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against them.  After two rounds of talks with Iran, both sides are preparing for armed conflict.  President Tru

It is difficult in modern politics for one party to maintain control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate for a prolonged period. Since 1968, there have been 29 Congressional elections and only 10 resulted in a unified government. Since 1980, the same party has controlled all three levers of power in consecutive elections only once (Republicans from 2003 - 2007). Over the last decade, we’ve seen unified control last only two years before divided go

Key Takeaways  The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will shut down at midnight tonight. Congress has left Washington without a deal to extend funding. Democratic demands  to restrict Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations were not met and there is not even a draft of compromise legislation. ICE ended its enhanced enforcement campaign in Minnesota on Thursday.  The action was not enough to get Democrats to agree to a DHS extension. There is some hope that p

Key Takeaways  Lawmakers passed funding bills to end the brief government shutdown this week. The President has now signed eleven of twelve full-year spending bills for 2026. The debate will shift to funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which was separated from the other agencies and faces a shutdown on February 13.  Given the policy differences, a DHS funding lapse is now more likely than not. Republicans have already rejected Democrats’ initial list of demands

Key Takeaways Funding for six federal agencies expired on Friday.  The Senate passed those bills by a vote of 71-29  after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made a deal  with Republicans. House Democrats, led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), were not consulted on that deal. Now, House Democrats are delaying a vote on the bill and prolonging the shutdown. Instead of fast-tracking the vote on Monday, House Democrats will force the bill to go through a longer proces

Key Takeaways  The Senate struck a deal to pass five of the six remaining appropriations bills and end the threat of a long-term government shutdown.  Those five bills will be funded through September 30, 2026. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will be separated from the spending bill and extended for only two weeks. This plan will isolate DHS spending while Congress and the White House try to negotiate a deal on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)

Key Takeaways The risk of another government shutdown increased over the weekend as Senate Democrats withdrew support for a bipartisan appropriations deal. Democrats are now insisting that Homeland Security be dropped from the package until reforms are made. Senate Republican Leadership is proceeding with the original bill as they seek a deal. Republican senators support ICE funding but they are not enthusiastic about another shutdown. The Homeland Security bill could be remo

Key Takeaways  The House finished completion of all twelve FY 2026 appropriations bills this week.  The final bills move to the Senate next week where votes will be held to avert a government shutdown and fully fund the government until September 30, 2026.  Federal agency funding under the bills totals $1.668 trillion, an increase of $75 billion or 4.7% over FY 2025.  A “Hail Mary” effort to pass an extension of ACA tax credits is ongoing in the Senate. The House is out of s

President Trump is increasingly concerned about affordability, especially in the housing market. It makes sense given the fact that rising costs are the number one concern for voters. Rising costs also materially threaten the long-term viability of tariffs. If voters universally blame import duties for inflation, it may shift sentiment about tariffs for generations. In either event, the President is clearly motivated to address affordability. The proposal so far outlined or d

The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the President's tariffs under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA), but the President's recent tariff announcements give us some insight into how the Administration may move forward should the tariffs be overturned. Our analysis of the "Greenland tariffs" is outlined below. The "Greenland Tariffs” on the UK and EU Nations  Earlier this week, the President announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on eight countries un

Key Takeaways Government Spending   It is likely that eight out of 12 FY 20206 appropriations bills will be signed into law by the January 30 expiration of the current continuing resolution (CR).  Each bill signed reduces the impact of a potential funding lapse.   The remaining bills – Defense, Labor-Health and Human Services, Homeland Security, and Transportation-Housing appropriations – are among the most controversial.   These four remaining bills will probably be subjec

Key Takeaways this Week  No ruling today on the legality of IEEPA reciprocal tariffs from SCOTUS. The decision is still expected sometime in January.   There is new momentum for a deal to extend ACA insurance subsidies in January.  Appropriations deals are coming together slowly but surely.  Some funding bills remain controversial (Homeland Security, State Department).  Congress will need more time and another extension for these agencies to avert a partial government shutdow

Key Takeaways: Three of the twelve FY 2026 annual funding bills have been signed into law. The other nine spending bills expire on January 30, 2026.  If spending is not extended, the government faces another shutdown.  This week, House and Senate leaders agreed to a bipartisan deal on three more bills (Commerce, Justice, Science/Energy and Water/Interior).  That leaves six bills that fund 77% of the government.  Negotiating these final appropriations will likely take longer t