House Democrats Prolong Government Shutdown

Key Takeaways

• Funding for six federal agencies expired on Friday. 

• The Senate passed those bills by a vote of 71-29 after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer made a deal with Republicans.

• House Democrats, led by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), were not consulted on that deal.

• Now, House Democrats are delaying a vote on the bill and prolonging the shutdown.

• Instead of fast-tracking the vote on Monday, House Democrats will force the bill to go through a longer process in the House that will delay the vote until Tuesday. 

• The lack of cooperation from House Minority Leader Jeffries delays consideration of the bill and increases the chances of a longer-term partial shutdown.

• We predict that Democratic appropriators and moderates will ensure there is majority support for the bill and government funding will pass tomorrow. 

Legislative Math and the House Vote for Government Spending 

The House easily passed a bill containing five of the six remaining spending bills on January 22, 2026, by a vote of 341-88. The text of those five bills was identical to the text passed in the Senate last week, the only change being that the Department of Homeland Security funding was reduced to two weeks in the latest version of the package. The House bill was opposed by 24 conservatives because of overall spending levels and 64 liberal Democrats who wanted more restrictions placed on the Trump Administration. 

Since the identical bill had the support of 79% of the House on January 22, Speaker Mike Johnson thought that he would be able to move the bill quickly today using a process known as "suspension of the rules." This allows the House to move outside of the normal Rules Committee process and pass a bill with limited debate and amendments if it has a ⅔ majority support. Minority Leader Jeffries said over the weekend that he would oppose this process because he was not looped into the deal made in the Senate. 

The bill will now go through a bumpier road to passage. It must clear the Rules Committee today, then a majority vote for a rule to consider the bill tomorrow, then final passage tomorrow afternoon. Today, the House will swear in Representative-elect Christian Menefee (D-TX), resulting in a 218-214 Republican majority in the House. 

The Speaker will not be able to pass the bill with only Republican votes and must rely on help from some Democrats. We predict that Democrats on the Appropriations Committee who helped forge these spending agreements will vote for the bill and help the Speaker overcome 24 conservative defectors. Moderate Democrats in the House do not want to be responsible for this shutdown even if Leader Jeffries sees a political opportunity.