Perspectives on New Federal Reserve Hires

As you may have seen, last week, newly confirmed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh named two new interim advisors to his staff: Dr. Paul Winfree and Daniel Heil. 

We have a years-long relationship with Paul, having worked closely with him on the Hill, at the Heritage Foundation, and while he was at EPIC, including hosting briefings together. Additionally, we worked closely with Paul and aligned on most domestic policy issues while at the White House during President Trump’s first term. While other firms can speculate on his impact on spending policy, we have a longtime relationship with Paul. 

Based on this, here are a few key points to keep in mind on what this means for monetary and spending policy in the next few months:



Dr. Paul Winfree

Paul served as Deputy Director of the Domestic Policy Council during President Trump’s first term. After leaving the White House, he authored the Federal Reserve portion of Project 2025, and in 2024, became president and CEO of the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC).

• Paul is a fiscal hawk and has led efforts for sweeping entitlement reforms.

• He comes from the school of thought that says inflation is primarily caused from spending as opposed to other factors.

• Paul will argue that we don’t need rate hikes to address inflation and instead advocate for big spending cuts especially to mandatory spending programs.

• Paul has called for rate cuts and may make an academic argument for continued rates cuts in the face of inflation because interest rates do not matter as much as spending when it comes to inflation.

• Paul opposes the Fed’s “dual mandate” and proposes to wind down the Fed's balance sheet as outlined in his chapter in Project 2025.

• He will be a voice that is supportive of rate cuts followed by fiscal restraint. 

• Paul pushed fiscal austerity during the first Trump administration.

• That trend may continue when it comes to convening Fed Board Members. 

Daniel Heil

Heil most recently served as a policy fellow at the Hoover Institution. While there, his research focused on the budget, tax policy, and antipoverty programs. Most recently, his published works included criticisms of state “wealth taxes,” federal spending (particularly on Social Security and Medicare), and the expansion of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). Heil worked with Warsh at Hoover and will be another voice arguing that fiscal restraint and major entitlement reforms are the key to reducing inflation.