Policy Week in Review - September 11, 2026 - President Trump Starts His Midterm Pitch

Andy Koenig

Sep 10

7 min read

In This Week's Edition

President Trump announces new refunds and dividends at GOP Midterm Convention

Congress returns next week with low expectations

Executive orders signed aimed at helping ranchers and farmers

New Hampshire and Rhode Island primary recaps

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs take effect, and the administration announces import bans

Activity at Iranian nuclear site picks up, while oil prices are up 45% since February

Census Bureau proposes removing illegal immigrants from census count

President Trump Announces New Refunds and Dividends

President Trump is beginning his national pitch in an attempt to fire up his voting base and re-elect Republicans in Congress. This week, the President laid out plans for potential dividends and payments to American voters and taxpayers. During a speech this week at the GOP Midterm Convention, the President announced the details of his plan to issue a "Trump Dividend” of $5,000 to every adult citizen if Republicans win the House and the Senate.

The White House likened the government providing a $5,000 dividend to a company returning cash to shareholders. However, the Administration made it clear that the policy would only move forward under President Trump if Republicans were in control on Capitol Hill. While Democrats dismissed the payment promise, Republicans in Congress have already pledged to introduce the dividend legislation in Congress.

Internally, White House officials have been dismissive of the dividend. Neither policy nor political staff are rushing to claim responsibility for the idea. One reason could be that the chances of anyone receiving a dividend are very slim. While not technically illegal to promise direct payments based on the outcome of the election, there are a number of reasons why taxpayers will never see a dollar.

Based on most projections and polling, Democrats are poised to win the House of Representatives and the Senate is essentially a toss-up.

The dividends would cost $1.3 trillion and there is no source of funding available to President Trump without Congressional action.

Even if Republicans retain both chambers of Congress, concerns over deficits mean conservatives would demand offsets while moderates would oppose cuts.

President Trump will increase his campaign travel over the next 55 days and focus on states like Iowa, Ohio, Texas, and Michigan. The promise of a $5,000 payment will undoubtedly be a mainstay on the trial. We’ll see in the coming weeks if the unconventional offer gains traction with voters.

In a separate announcement, the White House said it will be returning $500 to over one million Americans who were enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance exchange plans. According to the Trump administration the government had been collecting excessive user fees that brought in more money than was needed to operate ACA exchanges. That money will now be distributed in the form of refunds to over one million Americans on October 1, 2026. These payments are much more likely to come to fruition than the $5,000 dividend because the government has the cash in hand.

Congress Returns Next Week With Low Expectations

The House and Senate will both be back in Washington next week for the first time since July. Just because both chambers are in session, however, does not mean they will be making substantive progress on legislation. The House is only expected to be in session for two days as they wrap procedural business, repeal California emissions rules for ships, and officially adjourn until after the November 3 elections. The Senate may work through hearings and nominations but no major legislative breakthroughs are expected.

At this point, there is little incentive for Democrats to work with Republicans before the midterms. The minority party has made the calculation that progress on legislation could help the GOP. Democrats have decided to obstruct bipartisan bills and stall Congress. Even key national security issues like Russia sanctions, FISA surveillance authority, and troop funding will all wait until a lame duck session of Congress.

President Issues Executive Orders Impacting Farmers and Ranchers

Late last week, President Trump signed two executive orders aimed at assisting American ranchers and farmers. The “Supporting America’s Ranchers” order requires a review by the Department of the Interior, U.S. Trade Representative, the Food and Drug Administration, and the Small Business Administration to assess all agency policies impacting ranchers. The agencies will then be directed to take action to promote ranchers’ financial viability and market access in an attempt to appease a key voting constituency in states like Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio.

The order also directs Interior to begin the process of delisting or downlisting gray and Mexican wolves from protections under the Endangered Species Act, including the preparation of legislative methods at the state level. Farmers and ranchers have argued that wolves pose a danger to livestock and present an additional cost to their operations. The Department of Agriculture is also asked to review country-of-origin labeling for beef products.

Under the “Promoting Fair Competition in Livestock Markets and Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producers” order directs the Secretary of Agriculture to more robustly enforce the Packers and Stockyards Act to root out unfair, discriminatory, or deceptive practices. The order also directs the Secretary to expand opportunities for interstate shipments of meat products by increasing state participation in meat inspection programs and creating technical assistance and training programs for smaller meat processors.

New Hampshire and Rhode Island Primary Recaps

New Hampshire: Former Senator John Sununu (R) won the Republican primary against former Senator Scott Brown (R). Sununu was endorsed by President Trump and was seen as the superior general election candidate. New Hampshire marks a real pick-up opportunity for Republicans after being vacated by retiring Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D). Representative Chris Pappas (D) pulled out a decisive win in the Democratic primary for the seat.

Rhode Island: Rhode Island’s primary elections were a bit more surprising. The most closely watched race Wednesday evening was the Democratic primary for governor. Incumbent Governor Dan McKee (D) lost in the primary to Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who took an “outsider’s” approach to the campaign. Foulkes is largely expected to win the general election in the blue state.

Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) easily won his primary and is expected to hold his seat in November.

Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect

Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods went into effect earlier this week on September 8. They included 15%, 25%, and 50% tariffs on a range of products in response to U.S. tariffs that went into effect in late August. In response to the September 8 tariffs, the White House announced additional actions under Section 338 of the Tariff Act:

Banning the import of certain motorcycles from Canada

Banning the import of certain Canadian dairy products

Banning the import of certain Canadian alcoholic beverages

Adding the 50% tariff to additional Canadian products

The import bans are all effective on September 29, 2026. In a statement, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney declared that Canada’s goal was to become more independent and to “ensur[e] that no country can hold us hostage.” Substantial Canadian disentanglement from the United States will be difficult, with reports showing that nearly ⅔ of Canada’s total ⁠exports go to the United States.

The President also threatened to halt the sale of Bombardier aircraft in the United States. The Canadian company manufactures business jets that are popular for private travel.

Activity at Iranian Nuclear Site Picks Up as U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes

Speaking from the GOP Midterm Convention on Wednesday, President Trump reminded the American public that Iran could “absolutely not” be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. The President’s statement dovetailed with the release of a report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) this week that utilized multisource satellite imagery of Pickaxe Mountain in Iran to conclude that there is “more road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than at any point in the site’s history” and that the construction activity corresponds “to the raising and hardening of the portal accesses, paving of the internal road network, reinforcement around access areas, and the flattening and removal of excavation spoil.”

Pickaxe Mountain is a suspected nuclear site and an underground tunnel complex in close proximity to the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. According to CSIS, “[w]hile open-source evidence is not enough to fully reveal what is happening at Pickaxe Mountain, Iranian construction of a facility just 2 kilometers away from their old uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is suspicious.”

Military strikes between the U.S. and Iran also escalated this week following Iranian attempts to target U.S. naval assets, including launching ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and Navy destroyers. In response, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces later fired missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan.

Meanwhile, Operation Economic Outcast continues to prove its efficacy at isolating Iran from the world economy as Iran’s oil export revenue dwindles, “depriving Tehran of its main source of foreign currency as the value of the Iranian rial plunges, inflation soars and the economy slides deeper into crisis.” As part of Operation Economic Outcast, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) this week also sanctioned 36 targets for “supporting Iran’s aviation sector, which the regime uses to move weapons, personnel, and illicit cargo.”

Oil prices spiked again this week, with the price of crude oil exceeding $100 per barrel, and average diesel prices surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time.

Census Bureau to Remove Illegal Immigrants from 2030 Census Count

The Census Bureau released a proposed rule this week that would remove illegal immigrants from the next census count in 2030. In pertinent part, the proposed rule states that the Census Bureau has “preliminarily determined that … illegal aliens (among others) should not be included in the apportionment count.” The proposed rule would also exclude legal immigrants who reside in the U.S. temporarily. Comments will be accepted for 30 days following publication of the rule in the Federal Register. An attempt during the first Trump administration to add a citizenship question to the census was ultimately blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court.