Policy Week in Review - Trump Addresses Nation on Iran, DHS Shutdown Nears the End, POTUS FY 2027 Budget Release

Key Takeaways

• The President said the U.S. is close to military victory in Iran.

• U.S. operations could wind down in the next two weeks.

• During that period, the U.S. may increase military operations and is even considering the use of ground troops to inflict further damage on Iranian military infrastructure.

• It seems unlikely the U.S. will take a military lead role in opening the Strait of Hormuz.

• President Trump is still open to negotiations with Iranian leaders.

• The House agreed to pass a Senate plan to fund DHS without CBP or ICE.

• That funding bill will probably pass next week and reopen TSA and most of DHS.

• Further appropriations for CBP and ICE will be left to Reconciliation 2.0.

• The President’s budget will be released tomorrow and is expected to include large increases for defense spending in order to rebuild the defense industrial base.

• Democrats will argue that President Trump is paying for wars on the backs of vulnerable Americans.

  
  

Reviewing the President’s Address on Iran

Last night, the President delivered a primetime address on military operations in Iran. The President highlighted the successes of Operation Epic Fury, and said that the United States is very close to meeting its core strategic objectives. The President said that U.S. military operations will be completed “very shortly,” and argued Iran is no longer a threat. Below are some of the main takeaways from the address

America Has Accomplished Objectives and Is Close to Victory

The President highlighted a number of American military achievements since bombings started on February 28, 2026, including:

• Decimating Iran’s navy, air force, and existing leadership structure.

• Annihilating Iran’s defense industrial base.

• Dramatically curtailing Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones.

• Destroying Iran’s control and command of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The President stated Operation Epic Fury has resulted in clear and devastating large-scale losses for Iran. According to the speech, “we are going to finish the job and we’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close.” 

Military Operations Could Ramp Up in the Coming Weeks

To that end, President Trump said the U.S. will hit Iran very hard over the next two to three weeks. While noting that diplomatic talks are ongoing, he also threatened to hit every electric plant and target Iran’s oil production if those talks fail. 

As part of the military ramp up, more U.S. troops could be ordered to the region (a report last week indicated the Pentagon is considering sending an additional 10,000 troops, but that was unconfirmed as of the time of this email). Approximately 5,000 U.S. troops have already been ordered to the region in the days after the military operation began. Total estimates for the number of U.S. troops currently in the region sit around 50,000 (up from the normal 40,000).

The Plan for the Strait of Hormuz 

The President reiterated that the U.S. does not use oil that flows through the Strait and suggested that countries facing higher prices should simply buy from America. As for the future of the blockade, President Trump laid out two plans for reopening the Strait of Hormuz:

• Our allies who rely on the Strait should “build up some delayed courage” and take back the Strait.

• The Strait reopens naturally and there is a return to the status quo. 

Meanwhile, the Department of War will release its full budget request for FY 2027 on April 21, and Secretary Hegseth and General Dan Caine will testify in front of the House Armed Services Committee the next week on April 29. Iran is expected to be a significant topic of discussion. As a reminder, the use of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve as well as special sanctions relief to purchase U.S. oil is expected to expire around April 19, 2026. 

DHS Shutdown Nears End Without Funding for ICE

The majority of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) will likely reopen next week after a historically long single-agency shut down. Within the last 48 hours, House Speaker Johnson dropped his opposition to the Senate’s DHS funding bill. The bill will likely move via a voice vote in the House and be signed into law. If there is an objection the House may have to return to vote on the bill, which could take until April 14. No matter when the vote occurs, the bill will undoubtedly pass with support from President Trump and House Democrats. 

As a reminder, the Senate-approved bill would fund all DHS agencies except ICE and CBP. According to CBO, the spending in the original bill totaled $64.4 billion in funding. Removing funding for CBP would reduce spending by $6.4 billion while omitting ICE funding cuts $10.03 billion from the bill. As a reminder, those agencies are tapping mandatory appropriations from last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3) to fund current operations. 

The change of heart from the House leadership happened quickly. Yesterday, the President published a post calling on Congress to send him a reconciliation bill fully funding both ICE and CBP no later than June 1. Shortly thereafter, Senate Majority Leader Thune and Speaker Johnson announced the House will approve the Senate bill that was passed in the early hours of Friday last week. 

Republicans will attempt to provide ICE and CBP with regular appropriations for three years through a forthcoming reconciliation bill (more on reconciliation below).

Reconciliation Process Starts with White House Budget Submission

While Congress is in recess, the House and Senate Budget Committees are working behind the scenes to craft the next reconciliation bill. Since the legislation would circumvent Democratic opposition, Republicans from both chambers are eager to push their individual policy ideas for inclusion. The process will start in earnest after the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) delivers its FY 2027 Budget to Congress on April 3, 2026. 

While the components of the budget reconciliation bill are still being finalized, some aspects of the plan seem to be coming into focus. Here’s the current plan: 

• Republican leaders intend to pass two reconciliation bills this year.

• The first budget reconciliation measure will include mandatory appropriations for ICE and CBP which have not received regular funding. 

• That bill is intended to be targeted to security spending and passed by June 1, 2026.

• The second reconciliation bill would theoretically serve as the vehicle to address larger issues like affordability, health care, tax cuts, and deficit reduction.

• The second bill may also include up to $250 billion in supplemental Department of War funding for military operations in Iran.



• Republicans are looking to crack down on fraudulent participation in entitlement programs to offset increased spending.

Passing either of these plans will still be a challenge given tight House and Senate margins. With both Budget Committees ready to start, we’ll know much more after the President’s budget is submitted this week. The budget is expected to include large increases for military and defense industrial build-ups along with reductions to domestic spending. Democrats will argue that President Trump is paying for wars on the backs of vulnerable Americans. 

President Trump Signs Executive Order on Mail-In Voting

While the SAVE America Act has stalled in the Senate, President Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order (EO) to compile a federal voter list with the names of every eligible voter in the U.S. That list would then be submitted to state election officials.The EO would also direct the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) to issue formal regulations governing mail-in voting. 

Other stipulations and requirements under the forthcoming regulations will include: 

• All outbound ballot mail must be mailed in an envelope that is marked as Official Election Mail.

• Any state that wishes to use mail-in voting to notify USPS 90 days in advance of the election. This will include the state reporting a list of mail-in eligible voters to USPS 60 days in advance. 

• USPS will provide states with a Mail-In and Absentee Participation List (which will be hosted by the Department of Homeland Security) of voters.

• The Department of Justice and USPS would coordinate during any investigations of fraudulent or illegal activity related to mail-in voting.

Proposed rules to carry out the EO would be published within 60 days. A final rule to implement the EO is due within 120 days (approximately late July). Upon implementation, it is quite possible that the order and resulting regulations could face legal challenges from Democratic state officials. 

Warsh Hearing on the Horizon

The Senate Banking Committee is looking to schedule a hearing for President Trump’s nominee to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, as early as mid-April when they return from the current district work period. 

Outgoing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term as chair ends in May 2026, although he can remain on the Federal Reserve until January 31, 2028 and has indicated he will continue to serve as long as the Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into his handling of renovations at the Fed continues. Despite strong support from Republicans, Warsh’s nomination still faces opposition from Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), who will not vote to confirm him until the DOJ probe is dropped.