Topics to Watch During President Trump’s Summit With President Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today for a much anticipated policy summit with the United States. Over the next two days, we expect that President Trump will seek policy agreements that allow the White House to announce major economic “breakthroughs” but still maintain status quo tariffs and reductions in overall trade. Even if deals don’t materially reshape the trajectory of U.S.-China trade, they could have big impacts on specific industries. 

While the pundits debate the optics of hosting lavish ceremonies to welcome President Xi, they are potentially overlooking several major issues that could be addressed. Below are 12 of the key policy areas to watch in the coming days.  

Russia Energy Sanctions & Secondary Tariffs:The recently signed Russia sanctions bill requires the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) to impose tariffs at a rate above 0% but not more than 100% on all Chinese products because China is a top five purchaser of Russian oil. The secondary sanctions must be set by October 26, 2026. Secondary tariffs could be anywhere between 0.01% and 100% based on USTR’s discretion, which gives the President broad latitude during these negotiations.  

Expiring Tariff Deal: On November 1, 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to call off a series of threatened retaliatory tariffs initially related to fentanyl coming into America. The deal included a pause of additional Section 301 tariffs coupled with Chinese promises to buy agricultural products and reduce fentanyl production. That pause will end on November 10, 2026, without an extension. 

Soybean and other Agriculture Purchases: There has been some controversy over whether China met its purchase obligations under last year’s U.S.-China trade truce. President Trump will look to increase China agricultural purchase pledges heading into the midterms.

Boeing Purchases: China promised to buy 200 Boeing planes in May 2026. Finalizing that deal is a headline priority for the White House and a likely light-lift overture from the Chinese. 

Taiwan Arm Sales: China is expected to pressure President Trump to halt Taiwanese arms sales in exchange for other U.S. priorities. Taiwan backers in the U.S., including GOP lawmakers, are urging President Trump to draw a hard line and move forward with $14 billion in arms sales that is currently paused.

War in Iran: China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil. As such, China is directly responsible for undercutting the President and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s economic pressure campaign known as Operation Economic Outcast. China is unlikely to change its oil supply chain but the issue is a big priority for President Trump as demonstrated by his UN speech this week.  

Critical Minerals and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients: The White House is focused on reshoring critical materials, rare earth minerals, and active pharmaceutical ingredients. The process will take time, if it is even possible. In the meantime, critical industries still depend on Chinese raw materials and President Trump may try to secure access to these products.

AI Security and Technology: Regulators and lawmakers are facing several questions when it comes to establishing rules for artificial intelligence (AI). On an international level, AI tech export controls, prohibitions on models, security, remote access, bans on foreign components, access to software, model sharing, and direct cash investment across borders are all issues that could be discussed. The long-term goal is to establish mutual rules but that is unlikely this week. 

Export Controls: Export controls are a major weapon in the U.S.-China trade economic skirmishes. Congress has given the President much more power to restrict exports in recent years. China just slapped export controls on pharmaceutical precursors as it looks to further its share of the biotech space. Loosening some controls would seem like a deal. 

Outbound Investment:Congress has increased the President’s authority to restrict private financial investment from the U.S. into China. The FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) requires the President to “prevent countries of concern from exploiting United States capital to undermine United States national security.” This broad authority could be used as leverage in negotiations. 

U.S. Treasury Purchases: China’s portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities have dropped precipitously in the last decade. In 2017, China held $1.2 trillion in U.S. securities. Today that number has been almost cut in half to $618 billion in July 2026. 

Existing Section 232 National Security Tariffs: China is subject to a number of product- specific tariffs meant to address national security concerns under Section 232 of the Trade Act (listed below). These tariffs are applied solely at the discretion of USTR and impact $227 billion in imports. Section 232 tariffs for specific industries could be bargaining chips. 

Current Imposition of U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Goods  

The United States has imposed a wide range of tariffs on China generally for violating international trade rules as well as additional product-specific tariffs justified as a matter of national security. These tariffs include numerous exceptions and caveats, but generally, the U.S. currently imposes the following tariffs on China as of September 23, 2026. 

Other investigations remain ongoing and additional Section 232 tariffs are possible in the coming months. Additionally, a 15% tariff on polysilicon ingots and wafers, solar cells, and solar modules slated to go into effect in December 2026, potentially impacting over $170 million in imports from China.

Trade Trends with China

Despite a slight bounceback during the Biden administration, trade between the United States and China has fallen sharply since President Trump’s first term began in 2017. Between 2017 and 2025, the value of imports coming from China into the U.S. fell from $505 billion to $308 billion.

The U.S. continues to maintain a trade deficit with China, with a goods trade deficit of over $91.2 billion through the first seven months of 2026. That deficit, however, has also gone down as a result of the reduced trade between the two countries. 

This is the effective result that President Trump intended by implementing tariffs. As such, we believe that there will not be a major change to the current tariff regime large enough to change the macro trade trajectory. The White House will certainly look for opportunities to tout agreements and victories, and will likely call off further tariffs, but the overall trade numbers in 2027 will be similar to those in 2026.