Trump’s Midterm Interventionism and the GOP Agenda

Key Takeaways

• GOP candidates endorsed by President Trump are winning in national primaries. 



• The victories demonstrate the President's grip over the Republican base.

• President Trump’s intervention is also ostracizing incumbent GOP Senators.

• There are now at least six senators who do not have a political obligation to Trump.

• If these Senators defect it would scuttle major priorities the rest of the year.  

• Reconciliation 3.0 and the SAVE America Act are on life-support while funding bills – including defense spending increases – are in jeopardy. 

• We’ve updated our 2026 legislative timeline to reflect these changes below.

Senate Primary Outcomes Could Complicate Legislative Agenda

President Trump’s foray into intra-party primary battles has been incredibly successful from an electoral standpoint. Candidates endorsed by President Trump are undefeated in Republican primaries for federal offices. 

The President’s win streak demonstrates his impressive sway with Republican primary voters. It may also endanger the prospects for some of his legislative priorities by ruffling feathers in the U.S. Senate. 

There are now a half dozen senators who have either lost their primary to a Trump-endorsed candidate or who have openly criticized the President’s intervention. That means there are now potentially six senators with a political or personal interest in opposing President Trump’s legislative priorities. At the very least, none of the following senators will feel compelled to support the President’s agenda. 

• Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) lost in his primary to Trump-backed U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow (LA-05) on May 16. He has switched his vote on a recent War Powers Resolution to oppose President Trump’s authority.

• Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) is running for re-election in a state President Trump lost by seven points. She will gain politically by demonstrating opposition to President Trump.

• This week, incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) lost his primary election to Trump endorsee Ken Paxton. Senator Cornyn may no longer feel beholden to Trump.

• Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not running for re-election but has been vocally critical of President Trump’s endorsements and the candidates he’s supported.

• Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) is a perennial wild card who voted against tax cuts last year, has opposed military action in Iran, and was personally upset with the President’s intervention in the House race of Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (KY-04).

• Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) is not running for re-election and has been an outspoken critic of Trump. He is leading GOP opposition to the Department of Justice weaponization fund.

The current Republican majority in the Senate is 53-47. Confirmations, budget votes, and reconciliation bills require simple majorities and Vice President JD Vance would break any 50-50 tie in favor of the President. For other bills, 60 votes are required to overcome Democrat filibusters. 

With as many as six unreliable votes in the Senate for the rest of the year, it complicates a jam-packed Republican agenda. This is especially true for large items like passing another budget to pave the way for Reconciliation 3.0. 

Assessing Policy Priorities at the Memorial Day Recess 

When legislators return next week there will be 24 scheduled legislative days before the month-long August recess and 40 until the end of Fiscal Year 2026. There are still more than a dozen legislative major priorities that Republicans are hoping to accomplish. 

The following items would advance conservative policy changes and also demonstrate the GOP’s ability to legislate heading into a crucial midterm election in November. However, bills will be harder to pass with some many Senators who cannot be whipped by the White House.  

Below are some of the biggest remaining priorities for President Trump and Republicans running for reelection listed in order of the most likely and least likely to become law in light of the recent primary election results.   

• Approving $72 billion for ICE and CBP through a second reconciliation bill.

• FISA section 702 surveillance reauthorization, which expires June 12, 2026.

• Housing affordability and federal home assistance legislation (ROAD Act).

• CLARITY Act to regulate and authorize currency pegged to the U.S. dollar.

• Funding increase for defense and Iran War operations. 

• Senate hearings and confirmation for the next Attorney General, Labor Secretary, and Director of National Intelligence. 

• Farm Bill with agricultural assistance and SNAP programs.

• Highway Trust Fund long-term reauthorization.

• Export-Import Bank long-term reauthorization (expires September 30, 2026).

• SAVE America Act voting reform and voter ID legislation.



• Passing a concurrent budget resolution to start the next reconciliation process.

• Reconciliation 3.0 bill with GOP funding and reform priorities.

President Trump and Republicans would like to have all of these nominees confirmed and bills signed into law by September 30, 2026. With such a tight timeline, each legislative goal hinges upon another. If one bill is delayed, it takes away precious deliberation and floor time from the next in a domino effect. 

One policy snag has already delayed approval of Republican-only funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). President Trump and almost every Republican support the $72 billion to supply continued funding to these agencies for three years. The funding was delayed because it would have facilitated votes on an unrelated settlement fund for victims of political prosecutions by the federal government.

This is just one example of how unforeseen policy issues can delay key legislation in a landscape with such tight margins on Capitol Hill. Combined with the politics of the Senate noted above, these policy fights could jeopardize major GOP objectives, most notably a large Reconciliation 3.0 package.

Some bills, like housing program reform and cryptocurrency regulation, are far enough along in the process that they should be able to clear the finish line. Other issues, like defense and Homeland Security funding are so important that Republicans will probably find a way to unite despite their objections to President Trump’s endorsements. 

Illustrative Legislative Timeline