Policy Week in Review - September 25, 2026 - Senate Polling Steadily Moving Towards Democratic Candidates

In This Week’s Edition

• Senate polling steadily moving towards Democratic candidates

• Assessing the crowded “lame duck” playing field in Congress 

• President Trump floats 90-day diesel export ban

• Vice President Vance announces ACA fraud crackdown

• Administration renews $100,000 H-1B visa fee

• President Trump signs arctic security agreement

• U.S. and Iran hold indirect talks on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly

• ICYMI: Topics to watch during the U.S.-China summit

Senate Polling Steadily Moving Toward Democratic Candidates

In early August, we released a midterm election update and stated that “the odds of Democrats winning the Senate are being undervalued.” Since that time, polling in key battleground states has steadily trended towards Democratic Senate candidates. 

Democratic candidates have increased their net support in eight of ten key states we analyzed on August 5. While some Republicans have improved their favorables slightly after months of advertising, those gains are largely erased by the general support for Democratic candidates across the board. Over the past two months, Democratic candidates have increased their net support in eight of ten key states we analyzed on August 5. Republican candidates have made net gains in only two states – Maine and Nebraska. 

Democrats need to flip four seats to take the Senate and have a number of possible paths to do so. Democrats have increased their polling margins in eight states and now lead the polls in nine of the ten swing states below. The trends do not bode well for GOP candidates. 

Assessing the Crowded “Lame Duck” Playing Field

As is often the case at the end of a Congressional session, several long-term legislative priorities are waiting until the last minute. Lawmakers are now counting on the five-week “lame duck” legislative session to accomplish a laundry list of legislative goals. 

Below is a tracker with lame duck bills vying for floor time before the expiration of the 119th Congress.

Funding the Government: Government agency funding was extended to December 11, 2026, but there is still disagreement over FY 2027 spending levels. If control of Congress changes hands, Democrats may want to write an omnibus spending bill next year when they hold the cards. A shutdown is a distinct possibility.

National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA): The NDAA was blocked for political reasons before the midterm election but will pass Congress by Christmas. The Senate NDAA will set the spending levels and includes $1.15 trillion in authorized spending for 2027, with $1.098 trillion for the Department of War and $52 billion for defense activities within other agencies.

Supplemental Money for the War with Iran: Both the House and Senate have proposed $73 billion in supplemental military spending. Reconciliation will be needed to provide funding for operations in Iran unless there is a surprise deal. The votes are likely there in the House. The Senate will be the bigger question, and the midterms could have a big impact. 

Reconciliation 3.0: In addition to military operations in Iran, Republicans could try to push other funding priorities into a final, partisan reconciliation bill. Additional spending could be added for voter ID, defense procurement, border security, and farmers. 

College Athlete Compensation Regulation: The Protect College Sports Act (S.4668) will likely pass the Senate this week. The bill has quietly garnered support inside the White House. There will be a strong push for the House to pass the legislation when it returns. 

Surface Transportation Extension: Federal funding for surface transportation through the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) expires on December 11. A House bill included a total of $580 billion, including $147 billion in borrowing to cover the HTF shortfall over the next five years.

Farm Bill Extension: Republicans hope they can move a $495 billion “Farm Bill” before the end of this Congress, but time is running out. The bill authorizes and funds assistance to farmers, crop price support, crop insurance, and the food stamp program. If Congress punts, this seems like a bipartisan spending opportunity next year. 

Reauthorizing FISA’s Section 702 Surveillance Authority: Reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) remains stalled. A lame duck negotiation between senators on the way out might alleviate the political pressure and create the environment necessary to get the deal done. 

Kids Internet and Digital Safety (KIDS Act): The Senate has been considering its own version of KOSA after the House passed a separate version (the KIDS Act) in June 2026. The committee unanimously passed KOSA, and there will be a push to bring it to the Senate floor.

Export-Import (EXIM) Bank Reauthorization: The EXIM Bank provides federal financing and government-subsidized loans to American companies competing overseas. It expires on December 31 and will not be able to approve new loans afterward. 

CLARITY Act Cryptocurrency Regulatory Structure: The bill establishes two distinct federal regulatory structures for both digital currencies that are pegged to the U.S. dollar and other cryptocurrencies that are traded as commodities. It hit a major snag last week in the Senate. It won’t move without a bipartisan breakthrough, but the lame duck offers a chance. 

Environmental Permitting Reform for Energy Construction: Hopes for a bipartisan energy permitting overhaul took a hit when the Senate punted on a vote before the midterms. However, there is bipartisan support, and the hope is that a bill can pass when political temperatures are lowered in a lame duck session. 

Railway Safety Act: Passage of the Railway Safety Act is a priority for Vice President JD Vance. The bill increases safety requirements for rail carriers and trains transporting hazardous materials.

President Trump Floats Diesel Export Ban

The White House is reportedly preparing a potential 90-day export ban on diesel. The move comes as diesel prices continue to hit record highs, with diesel prices averaging $6.5276 per gallon on September 22. The President has already faced opposition from some Republican lawmakers, U.S. fuelmakers, and even his own Secretary of Energy. Opponents argue that an export ban will result in higher prices down the line. There are Republicans who would support the ban, including Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) who offered support for the temporary ban, saying that it will help farmers who have been hit by the high cost of diesel.

Capitol Perspectives’ Marc Short has been vocal on the issue and appeared on Bloomberg earlier this week to discuss a potential diesel export ban, AI policy, and the midterms. Watch here.

ICYMI: Marc also wrote an op-ed in opposition to the ban which appeared in the Washington Examiner on Thursday: “Banning diesel exports won’t save the GOP in the Midwest.”

Vice President Vance Announces ACA Fraud Crackdown

On Wednesday, Vice President Vance and other administration officials announced that they would be removing 760,000 individuals from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace, stating that they were either fraudulently enrolled or did not exist. The administration estimates that this will result in savings of $2.2 billion. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) also announced a moratorium on new agents and brokers registering. According to the White House, agent and broker-assisted enrollments “account for a disproportionate share of unauthorized enrollments and other high-risk activity in the Marketplace.” The effort is part of a larger effort led by Vice President Vance to address fraud in government programs.

Administration Renews $100,000 Fee for H-1B Visas

Late last week, President Trump signed an executive order and proclamation to enhance program integrity and cut down on abuses of the H-1B visa program. The actions also renewed a fee originally announced last September of $100,000 for certain applications.

The order and proclamation seek to improve “interagency coordination” and direct federal agencies to provide enhanced scrutiny of H-1B visa applications “where there is a heightened risk that American workers would be laid off.”

President Trump Signs Arctic Security Agreement

On Tuesday, President Trump joined Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Prime Minister of Greenland Jens-Frederik Nielsen in signing a new agreement over the security of Greenland, which “forever guarantees America the ability to defend the continent, includes permanent basing rights, and bars any U.S. adversary from establishing a base, military presence, or sensitive investment without America’s approval.” The new agreement amends and supplements a 1951 agreement between the United States and Denmark on the defense of Greenland. 

Under the new agreement, the United States is authorized to construct two military bases at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig. Narsarsuaq - on the southern tip of Greenland - was the location of the Bluie West One military base between 1942 and 1958. The location has deep-water access as well as a large runway. Mestersvig is located in eastern Greenland and is currently used by a Danish naval dog sled unit.

U.S. and Iran Hold Indirect Talks on Sidelines of U.N. General Assembly

Iranian officials and U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff held indirect talks on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week, mediated by Qatari diplomats. According to reports, Tehran expressed a willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz “within a week” on the condition that the U.S. ratchets down military and economic pressure. President Trump described the discussions as “a very good meeting.”  

In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran was willing to negotiate an end to the war but still defended Iran’s nuclear program and said he would not accept “the language of force.” The White House condemned his remarks, citing Iran’s record of killing its own citizens, attacking Americans, committing terrorism in the Strait of Hormuz, and striking regional neighbors, and reiterated that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon to ensure global stability. 

Meanwhile, Iran continues to face repercussions under Operation Economic Outcast - launched at the end of August - as Canada announced new sanctions against senior Iranian officials and state-run entities and the UAE imposed sanctions on the Emirati branches of Iran’s Bank Melli. Furthermore, following the Treasury Department’s sanctioning of Iranian airlines earlier this month, Iran has faced flight disruptions across the region as trading partners have begun canceling flights. In response, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei has threatened to paralyze airports in neighboring countries if they cooperate with the U.S. in halting Iranian flights.  

ICYMI: Topics to Watch During President Trump’s Summit With President Xi 

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met this week for a much anticipated policy summit with the United States. As we predicted earlier this week, the U.S. and China announced an extension through January 10, 2027 of a pause on additional Section 301 tariffs initially related to fentanyl coming into America. On the flip side, reports now indicate that hopes for China to announce a major buy from Boeing are fading. For our full breakdown on the summit from earlier this week, click here.