Predicting the Policy Highlights in the State of the Union

Andy Koenig

Feb 23

5 min read

President Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address on Tuesday. Having worked on State of the Union speeches for President Trump in the first administration, we’re predicting some of the big policies to watch during tomorrow’s address. Below are predictions on speech highlights, major policy goals, priorities for Congress, foreign policy, and the President’s political messaging heading into the midterm elections.

Possible Legislative Priorities for Congress

Odds are that it will be difficult for Congress to pass major legislative initiatives during the rest of this year because of increasingly tight margins in the Senate and especially the House of Representatives. However, there are still White House goals that would require legislative changes, including the following:

Reopening and fully funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Prohibiting “large institutional investors” from purchasing single-family homes.

Codifying “Most Favored Nations” price controls on prescription drugs.

Ending sanctuary cities’ status as identified by the Department of Justice.

Providing federal health care insurance subsidies directly to individuals.

Changing Senate filibuster rules to pass priorities like voter ID with 50 votes.

Reconciliation budget process to pass legislation with 50 votes in the Senate (though the President downplayed the need for reconciliation in recent weeks).

Imposing sanctions on purchasers of Russian or Iranian oil.

Establishing federal regulations for digital assets (CLARITY Act).

Requiring multiple payment networks to cut fees (Credit Card Competition Act).

Permitting reform to expedite approval of energy projects (potentially SPEED Act).

Enacting national voter ID and passing the SAVE Act.

Placing cost sharing reduction payments under appropriations (Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act).

Defending Tariffs and Outlining Next Steps

Fresh off the Supreme Court decision that ended President Trump’s authority to enact reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), we expect the President to make a spirited defense of his tariff policy. The speech will likely describe how tariffs will be kept in place using alternative statutory authorities. We expect that the President will make many of the following arguments regarding tariffs:

Tariffs are the reason that the White House was able to negotiate new trade deals.

Tariffs have brought in hundreds of billions in revenue ($175 billion - $300 billion in 2025), and estimates suggest they will bring in nearly $4 trillion in ten years.

Tariffs are bringing industries back to the United States.

The President has leveraged a reported $10 trillion in new investment.

Tariffs will now be even bigger because of the Supreme Court’s ruling.

The President has imposed across-the-board 15% tariffs on the world for 150 days under Section 122 of Trade Act of 1974.

President Trump will use expedited Section 301 tariff investigations to implement permanent tariffs.

The Administration will use export control authority to fill IEEPA tariff gaps.

Initiatives to Address Affordability Will Take Center Stage

Polling heading into the midterm elections shows that affordability will be the single largest issue for voters heading into the 2026 midterms – especially housing costs. The White House knows the importance of policies that reduce costs and put money in Americans’ pockets. Proposals on this topic are speculative, but could include the following:

Tariff rebate checks or other direct payments initially pegged at $2,000.

Freezing student loan repayment requirements.

Expanding direct-to-consumer drug purchases through TrumpRx.gov.

Purchasing mortgage-backed security through Fannie and Freddie to spur mortgage origination.

Lowering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac guarantee fees (g-fee) to lower mortgage rates.

Implementing executive action to ban investors from buying single-family homes.

Capping stock buybacks for homebuilding companies that are publicly traded.

Allowing 401(k) savings to be used for home down payments.

Prioritizing owner-occupied home sales though government auctions.

Allowing individuals to transfer existing mortgages to new property purchases.

Reducing duties or import barriers for housing construction materials.

Increasing access to public lands for private home construction.

Creating a regulatory pathway to 50-year mortgages.

Executive action to implement a temporary credit card interest rate cap.

Working voluntarily with homebuilders to produce affordable “Trump Homes.”

Working voluntarily with banks to extend credit through “Trump Cards.”

Increasing imports of agriculture products and direct payments to farmers.

Directing the next Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates.

Foreign Policy Will Be Portrayed As a Major Strength

As tensions rise between America and Iran, we expect the President will address foreign policy and how he has “reasserted American leadership.” The President is proud of his record on foreign policy and will tout major developments including actions in Venezuela, the recent executive order on Cuba, and the “Donroe Doctrine” in the Western Hemisphere.

Ending eight wars in eight months: Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Israel and Hamas.

Capturing Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, subsequent oil reform to allow private and foreign investment, and legislation giving amnesty to political prisoners.

Isolating Cuba by stopping the flow of Venezuelan oil and keeping traditional allies of Cuba on the sidelines.

Successfully pressuring NATO to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Launching the Board of Peace with a focus on next steps in Gaza.

Working to end Iran’s nuclear program and addressing current negotiations.

Striking a deal with NATO to guarantee access to Greenland.

Bringing China to the negotiating table on a new trade deal.

Pushing for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

Defending the Administration’s Record on Immigration and Safety

With DHS temporarily shuttered, the President will assuredly use this bully pulpit to call on Congress to reopen the agency for the sake of national security. In the wake of deaths in Minnesota, it will be an important opportunity for the President to defend his policies on immigration, talk about crime, and position Democrats as a threat to public safety.

Achieving net negative migration in the U.S. in 2025.

Highlighting statistics showing reductions in murder and violent crime.

Lowering illegal border crossings to the lowest level since the 1970s.

Maintaining zero releases of unlawful immigrants into the U.S. in 2025.

Resuming construction of the border wall.

Removing over 2.6 million unlawful immigrants from the country.

Establishing the Gold Card for U.S. residency.

Economic Highlights and Accomplishments from Year One

President Trump will certainly tout a number of major victories from his first year in office. Expect for the President to turn the economy into a winning issue by highlighting the following accomplishments.