Policy Week in Review - Iran Deal, DHS Funding, and an Update on Congressional Redistricting

Key Takeaways

• Reports this week suggest that the U.S. and Iran are close to ending hostilities. 

• The agreement would end the war, open the Strait, and start new negotiations. 

• All of the political incentives in D.C. are pushing the President towards the deal.

• Most Republicans on the Hill would support a Trump-blessed deal regardless of details.

• President Trump still warned that Iran has a history of scuttling agreements. 

• The Senate released text of a $71.6 billion bill to fund ICE and CBP through 2029.

• This funding will end the DHS funding crisis without any concessions to Democrats.

• President Trump travels to China next week with tariffs, agriculture purchases, AI sales restrictions, critical minerals, and airplane purchases on the agenda. 

• This week we take an in-depth look at state redistricting efforts around the country. 

• 12 states have changed or are trying to change their Congressional maps. 



• While the GOP took a recent loss in Virginia, the backlash in southern states could still see Republicans make overall gains before the midterms, as outlined below. 

U.S. and Iran Could Be Close to an Agreement to End the War

This week, President Trump touted progress on negotiations with Iran, saying that the U.S. has had “very good talks” with Tehran but that there was “never a deadline” on when to expect a response. Even after an exchange of fire yesterday, the President said the ceasefire is still in place.

Reports indicate that the two countries are nearing an agreement on a short memorandum to end the war. President Trump also gave himself an out by cautioning that Iran has a history of scuttling previous negotiations at the last minute.

The political incentives here in Washington are pushing the White House towards a deal. Gas prices still are more than 50% higher than when the conflict began, a majority of Americans oppose how the war is being handled, American farmers are facing a fertilizer access crisis, and most Republicans in Congress will support any deal blessed by President Trump.

In a call with PBS News, President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal, which according to the President would require Iran to export its highly enriched uranium to the United States and cease operations of its underground facilities. The proposed framework is said to be a phased approach that would formally end the war, open up the Strait of Hormuz, and then start a 30-day window for negotiations on a more comprehensive deal. 

As Iran reviews the deal, it has also seemingly created a new agency to vet and tax vessels seeking to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. The President continues to pressure Tehran to make a deal, with the U.S. military on Wednesday firing on an Iranian oil tanker attempting to bypass the U.S. naval blockade. President Trump also warned Iran that the U.S. military would resume strikes “at a much higher level and intensity” if Iran failed to agree to a deal.

Details of Reconciliation Funding Bills Released

This week, the Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary Committees released legislative text of a $71.6 billion appropriations package for immigration enforcement. The legislation was drafted pursuant to instructions in the budget resolution passed last week. As such, this reconciliation bill will move through Congress on a fast track needing simple majorities in both chambers. 

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding in the bills would go primarily to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). The reconciliation package represents a major win for Republicans and President Trump, who will be able to fully fund DHS and its immigration programs without compromising on any Democratic demands. These bills are expected to pass in the next two weeks, after which Republicans will be able to move onto other priorities after three months of debate over DHS. 

Congressional To-Do List

Congress returns next week with a long list of legislative priorities for the rest of the year. This week the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee may have taken a step toward reauthorizing surface transportation programs. According to reports, the Transportation Committee reached bipartisan agreement on a top-line number for a major highway and infrastructure reauthorization, edging it closer to a markup. 

That’s just one of the many legislative objectives left for Republicans in Congress. Here’s a look at the to-do list:

• Approve $72 billion in funding for immigration enforcement agencies (more above). 

• FISA section 702 surveillance reauthorization, which now expires on June 12, 2026, after another short-term extension. 

• Begin drafting "Reconciliation 3.0” with the GOP’s partisan election year wish list. 

• Confirm Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh. 

• Conduct Senate hearings and confirm President Trump’s next Attorney General.

• Consider the Senate version of the “Farm Bill” then combine legislation.

• Extend Highway Trust Fund spending authority expiring on September 30, 2026.

• Extend the Export-Import Bank which expires on September 30, 2026.

• Pass the SAVE America Act voting reform and voter ID legislation. 

• Finish housing affordability and federal home assistance legislation (ROAD Act H.R. 6644) which has passed both chambers in different forms.

• Finish the CLARITY Act to regulate the stablecoin marketplace for digital currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar.

• Draft and pass supplemental funding for defense and Iran War operations.  

Trump to Visit China Next Week

Next week, President Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first such trip in nearly a decade. Expected to be on the table for discussion are potential areas of agreement on trade following earlier talks between top American and Chinese officials in March. 

The U.S. is interested in Chinese purchases of agricultural products and energy, easing rare earth and critical mineral restrictions, and finalizing a long-stalled deal for China to purchase Boeing aircraft. China, meanwhile, would like the U.S. to ease export controls on advanced semiconductors and is wary of other pending legislation that would restrict sales of chipmaking equipment to China. Iran will also likely be discussed, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi having traveled to Beijing this week to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  

The President will be joined by Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and is expected to extend invitations to executives of other large companies, including Nvidia, Apple, Exxon, Qualcomm, Blackstone, Citigroup, and Visa.

One other major topic of conversation during the visit will likely be regulations on the exchange and trade of artificial intelligence (AI) chips. China has already implemented regulation on the distribution of AI chips internally. Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, there is growing support for legislation like the AI OVERWATCH Act (H.R. 6875) which would ban the export of any U.S. AI chip to a foreign adversary. We’ll have more on AI regulation next week. 

Mid-Decade Redistricting Efforts Ramp Up Ahead of Midterms

A number of states have already passed or are considering redrawing their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections under pressure from both Republican and Democratic Party leadership. Below is a brief summary of current redistricting efforts and where each stands as of this email.

Already Approved New Congressional Maps for 2026

California: Voters in California approved a new congressional map in November 2025. The new map is expected to favor Democrats in the midterms. Although the new map initially faced legal challenges, the Supreme Court upheld the map in February 2026.

Potential Outcome: Five new Democratic seats in the U.S. House. 

Florida: On Monday, Governor Ron DeSantis (R) signed a new congressional map into law that was approved by the Florida legislature. The map could give Republicans as much as a four-seat gain in the House. A lawsuit was filed by opponents of the new map shortly afterwards, and litigation is ongoing.

Potential Outcome: Four new Republican seats in the U.S. House. 

Missouri: Last fall, Governor Mike Kehoe (R) signed a new congressional map into law. The new map would potentially give Republicans an additional seat in the House.The state supreme court recently upheld the map, although Democrats are now working on a ballot referendum that could delay the implementation of the new map. 

Potential Outcome: One new Republican seat in the U.S. House. 

North Carolina: North Carolina also approved a new map last fall. The new map could give Republicans an additional seat in the House. A legal challenge to the new map was denied. 

Potential Outcome: One new Republican seat in the U.S. House. 

Ohio: The Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously passed a new congressional map last year as well, which potentially gives Republicans an additional two seats in the House. Unlike the other redistricting efforts on this list, the state constitution required the new map; it was not a mid-decade redistricting effort.

Potential Outcome: Two new Republican seats in the U.S. House. 

Texas: Texas was the first state to succeed with mid-decade redistricting. The new congressional map, signed into law by Governor Greg Abbott (R), could give Republicans five new seats in the House. The Supreme Court allowed the maps to move forward at the end of April.

Potential Outcome: Five new Republican seats in the U.S. House. 

Utah: Similar to Ohio, Utah was already dealing with redistricting prior to the push for mid-decade redistricting brought by other states. Last fall, a judge adopted a new congressional map that may give Democrats the opportunity to pick up their first House seat in the state.

Potential Outcome: One new Democratic seat in the U.S. House. 

Virginia: In April 2026, Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment creating a new congressional map. The new map could give Democrats an additional four seats in the House. The referendum is facing ongoing legal challenges.

Potential Outcome: Four new Democratic seats in the U.S. House. 

Ongoing Redistricting Efforts for 2026

Alabama: In light of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, Alabama is looking to revert back to a congressional map that was originally drawn in 2023, but never used due to court challenges. The map would potentially add another Republican seat to the state’s delegation.

Potential Outcome: One new Republican seat in the U.S. House. 

Louisiana: The recent Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais invalidated the map passed by Louisiana lawmakers in 2024. Governor Jeff Landry (R) suspended the upcoming May congressional primary elections in response to the ruling (and this suspension has been challenged in court). The legislature is looking to pass a new map before the end of the regular session on June 1.

Potential Outcome: TBD.

South Carolina: The South Carolina legislature is currently pursuing redistricting, with the hopes of adding another Republican seat to the state’s delegation (currently, South Carolina’s House delegation only has one Democratic Representative, Jim Clyburn). Governor Henry McMaster (R) has said he won’t call a special session, but on Wednesday, the legislature passed a resolution that could allow them to consider the issue after the regular session ends on May 14.

Potential Outcome: One new Republican seat in the U.S. House. 

Tennessee: Earlier this week, Tennessee lawmakers released a new congressional map to eliminate the one Democratic seat in the delegation, belonging to Representative Steve Cohen. The new map easily passed the state legislature on Thursday, and awaits the governor’s signature. The new map is likely to be subject to legal challenges.

Potential Outcome: One new Republican seat in the U.S. House. 

Failed Redistricting Efforts

A handful of states have failed to gain enough support for (or rejected outright) redistricting efforts, including: Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland, New York, and Washington.