Policy Week in Review - Trump Nears Decision on Iran, Senate Republicans Search for Path Forward on Reconciliation, and a 2026 Election Update
Key Takeaways
The President is nearing a decision on a ceasefire agreement with Iran, meeting with advisors on Friday.
The agreement would result in a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Senate Republicans are grappling with a path forward on reconciliation efforts.
In particular, Republicans are concerned about politically uncomfortable votes related to the recently announced DOJ settlement fund.
Congress returns next week to a long list of must-pass legislation and policy priorities, with an ever-shrinking calendar to accomplish those goals.
The Capitol Perspectives team attended political meetings in D.C. this week, and we share our readout and analysis of those discussions below.
Trump Nears Decision on Iran Agreement
The United States and Iran made tangible progress on negotiations for a peace deal. Over the weekend, President Trump relayed that “[a]n Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed.” The draft memorandum of understanding reportedly includes:
A 60-day ceasefire extension
Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz
An end to all military operations
A commitment by Iran never to develop nuclear weapons
An agreement to dispose of Iran’s enriched uranium
Releasing frozen assets and lifting sanctions on Iran based on its compliance with the terms of the agreement
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that they “perhaps have the makings of a deal here” but went on to say that it all hinges on the President’s signoff. As of Friday morning, the President is holding a meeting with senior advisers to make a “final determination” on moving forward with the deal.
As part of a peace deal, President Trump has urged other Gulf nations to normalize relations with Israel and join the landmark Abraham Accords. Another key variable in reaching an agreement is Israel’s continuing military campaign against the foreign terrorist organization Hezbollah, based in Lebanon; Tehran is insistent that any deal would end fighting on all fronts, while Israel maintains its right to defend itself from threats posed by Hezbollah.
Even as the contours of a draft agreement take shape, President Trump also urged caution, saying that he had “informed [his] representatives not to rush into a deal” and that “[b]oth sides must take their time and get it right,” with the ultimate condition being that Iran must not be allowed to develop or procure a nuclear weapon.
While the U.S. and Iran continue negotiations, there is concern that hardliners in Iran are attempting to sabotage a potential deal by carrying out attacks and covert operations. On Monday, the U.S. conducted strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and boats engaged in placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz in order to protect U.S. troops. Two U.S. officials described “24 hours of missile, drone and small boat launches carried out by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps near the Strait of Hormuz,” including the launch of surface-to-air missiles while U.S. aircraft were in the vicinity. Following the strikes, Iran threatened retaliation, saying it would “leave no act of hostility unanswered.”
Trump Nears Decision on Iran Agreement
The United States and Iran made tangible progress on negotiations for a peace deal. Over the weekend, President Trump relayed that “[a]n Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries, as listed.” The draft memorandum of understanding reportedly includes:
A 60-day ceasefire extension
Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz
An end to all military operations
A commitment by Iran never to develop nuclear weapons
An agreement to dispose of Iran’s enriched uranium
Releasing frozen assets and lifting sanctions on Iran based on its compliance with the terms of the agreement
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that they “perhaps have the makings of a deal here” but went on to say that it all hinges on the President’s signoff. As of Friday morning, the President is holding a meeting with senior advisers to make a “final determination” on moving forward with the deal.
As part of a peace deal, President Trump has urged other Gulf nations to normalize relations with Israel and join the landmark Abraham Accords. Another key variable in reaching an agreement is Israel’s continuing military campaign against the foreign terrorist organization Hezbollah, based in Lebanon; Tehran is insistent that any deal would end fighting on all fronts, while Israel maintains its right to defend itself from threats posed by Hezbollah.
Even as the contours of a draft agreement take shape, President Trump also urged caution, saying that he had “informed [his] representatives not to rush into a deal” and that “[b]oth sides must take their time and get it right,” with the ultimate condition being that Iran must not be allowed to develop or procure a nuclear weapon.
While the U.S. and Iran continue negotiations, there is concern that hardliners in Iran are attempting to sabotage a potential deal by carrying out attacks and covert operations. On Monday, the U.S. conducted strikes in southern Iran against missile launch sites and boats engaged in placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz in order to protect U.S. troops. Two U.S. officials described “24 hours of missile, drone and small boat launches carried out by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps near the Strait of Hormuz,” including the launch of surface-to-air missiles while U.S. aircraft were in the vicinity. Following the strikes, Iran threatened retaliation, saying it would “leave no act of hostility unanswered.”
Key Deadlines to Watch as Congress Returns Next Week
The House and Senate return next week with a long to-do list and very few legislative days left to approve must-pass legislation and policy priorities before the midterm elections.
June 1 - June 5
The Senate and House return from a week-long Memorial Day recess. The House won’t hold votes until Wednesday.
June 8 - June 12
The Senate and House will remain in session. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) expires on June 12 after a short-term reauthorization was passed earlier in the year.
June 15 - June 19
The Senate is in session; the House is in recess.
June 22 - June 26
The Senate and House are both in session.
June 29 - July 3
The House is in session. The U.S., Mexico, and Canada will begin the joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on July 1.
July 6 - July 10
Both the House and Senate are in recess for the July Fourth holiday.
July 13 - July 24
Both the House and Senate are in session. The House leaves D.C. for August recess on July 23.
July 27 - August 7
The Senate is in session, before recessing on August 7 for August recess.
The House and Senate are in session for about two weeks each in September, before both head back to their districts/states to finish up the campaign.
The Farm Bill, Highway Trust Fund, Export-Import Bank and FY 2026 funding all expire on September 30, 2026.
An Update on the 2026 Midterms
While Congress was out of session this week, Capitol Perspectives attended political events discussing the upcoming midterm elections and the prospects for Republicans. Here are some of our insights and analysis based on those discussions:
Rising gas prices and the war in Iran have had a significant, negative impact on polling for Republicans.
The rising costs of fertilizer have also put agriculture-heavy states like Ohio and Nebraska in play for Democrats.
Republicans face a challenge in Maine if they are unable to increase the negatives for Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner.
Georgia also represents a challenge for Republicans, where the electorate is trending more Democratic, and the dynamics of Trump vs. Governor Brian Kemp make winning the race more difficult.
In New Hampshire, the GOP is confident, with a 40,000 registered voter advantage.
Michigan represents a bright spot for Republicans, where the Republicans have a better chance of winning should progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed win the Democratic primary.
In Texas, the Republican Party sees Ken Paxton as Trump’s candidate, and will be unlikely to divert additional resources to support him.
Generally, the national sentiment is very negative for Republicans at this time, and increasing gas prices and the ongoing war with Iran have done nothing to help this. However, while Democrats have expanded their reach (such as in Iowa, Nebraska, and North Carolina), Republicans have also seen flip opportunities arise in places like Michigan and New Hampshire.
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